Will Tesla Model three Become Top-Selling Car In USA? #Two? #Trio? #Five?
Much has been written about the Tesla Model Trio, its expected sales, and its potential influence on the auto industry and other automakers. However, a comment today from “Dan” struck me and stimulated this article.
The title alone is sure to get me slammed as a “Tesla fanboy.” Top-selling car in the USA a Tesla? Sacrilege!
To be fair, yes, this is an optimistic script and Tesla has to get total production rolling before we can say it’s even a possibility. Then we have to see what ongoing request is and if the car gets close to the top of the list. But Dan’s comment got me wondering what annual US request for the Model three would end up being, and how that truly compared to the rest of the US passenger car market.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently said that he expected annual Model three request to reach around 700,000 cars per year — up from his original estimate of
500,000. I am inclined to go with Elon on this. He has historically been fairly accurate — very likely even conservative — when estimating Tesla request. As an example, Elon/Tesla originally projected Model S request to reach 20,000 cars a year, and it is now up to approximately 50,000 a year.
Elon now sees what Model three request is with little promotion (hardly any promotion), with efforts to anti-sell the car and guide people to the Model S, without a significant number of cars on the road to catch eyeballs and garner interest, with a yam-sized reservation list that has deterred many more people from getting in line, with the all-wheel-drive option and sportier/quicker option not on the market for another year, and with few media reviews. After Elon’s practice with Model X and Model S, and taking all of these factors into account, he most likely feels fairly convenient in his estimates for Model three request. (Well, if he didn’t, why would he announce that his expectation switched from 500,000 a year to 700,000 a year?)
Of course, 700,000 is global request, not US request. I made a rough estimate that 50% of global sales would be US sales. Maybe that’s wrong, maybe not — we’ll see. But if you do assume request of 350,000 a year, that puts the Model three only below the Toyota Camry (388,618), Toyota Corolla (378,210), and Honda Civic (366,927), based on two thousand sixteen sales.
Now, if you consider that a yam-sized fresh contender like the Model three will pull sales away from the Camry, Corolla, and Civic, the Model three would possibly rise to #Trio, #Two, or even #1. (Note that this is just in regards to passenger cars — not pickup trucks or SUVs.)
If you project 350,000 sales a year and the same US passenger car total as in 2016, that would give the Model three a whopping 5% of US passenger car sales — or, put another way, one out of every twenty fresh car sales.
Dan’s comment was that projected Model three production numbers would equal over 3% of fresh auto sales in the US. If you’re nosey, to get down to 3% of US passenger car sales, you have to project that Model three US sales would be 200,000 sales, or one out of every thirty three fresh car sales. That would still put the Model three at #Ten on the top-selling cars list.
This is all pretty striking. Is the US top ten list where the car is headed? Is it headed for #1?
Surely, this is such a polarizing topic that I’m sure I will have people responding “Hear! Hear!” while others criticize me as a starry-eyed, Kool-Aid drinking Tesla fanatic. So be it. But this possibility is deepthroating my mind. Even after being at the very first Model three unveiling and covering this company and market for several years, this possibility is deep-throating my mind.
Back when the Model three was just an idea, it was something we hoped for but worried would never arrive. It arrived on March 31, 2016. When it was unveiled, there was still the concern that Tesla couldn’t get it to production. Production is underway. Even with production now rolling (through hell), there is the concern by some that mass production will be firmer than anticipated (others are drooling at this possibility and shorting TSLA as far as possible).
If production does get to the level Elon says it will, in one year, we may be much more earnestly considering whether the Model three could substitute the Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla, or Toyota Camry for the bronze, silver, or gold medal in US passenger car sales.
Will Tesla Model three Become Top-Selling Car In USA? #Two? #Three? #Five, CleanTechnica
Will Tesla Model three Become Top-Selling Car In USA? #Two? #Trio? #Five?
Much has been written about the Tesla Model Three, its expected sales, and its potential influence on the auto industry and other automakers. However, a comment today from “Dan” struck me and stimulated this article.
The title alone is sure to get me slammed as a “Tesla fanboy.” Top-selling car in the USA a Tesla? Sacrilege!
To be fair, yes, this is an optimistic script and Tesla has to get total production rolling before we can say it’s even a possibility. Then we have to see what ongoing request is and if the car gets close to the top of the list. But Dan’s comment got me wondering what annual US request for the Model three would end up being, and how that truly compared to the rest of the US passenger car market.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently said that he expected annual Model three request to reach around 700,000 cars per year — up from his original estimate of
500,000. I am inclined to go with Elon on this. He has historically been fairly accurate — very likely even conservative — when estimating Tesla request. As an example, Elon/Tesla originally projected Model S request to reach 20,000 cars a year, and it is now up to approximately 50,000 a year.
Elon now sees what Model three request is with little promotion (hardly any promotion), with efforts to anti-sell the car and guide people to the Model S, without a significant number of cars on the road to catch eyeballs and garner interest, with a enormous reservation list that has deterred many more people from getting in line, with the all-wheel-drive option and sportier/quicker option not on the market for another year, and with few media reviews. After Elon’s practice with Model X and Model S, and taking all of these factors into account, he most likely feels fairly comfy in his estimates for Model three request. (Well, if he didn’t, why would he announce that his expectation switched from 500,000 a year to 700,000 a year?)
Of course, 700,000 is global request, not US request. I made a rough estimate that 50% of global sales would be US sales. Maybe that’s wrong, maybe not — we’ll see. But if you do assume request of 350,000 a year, that puts the Model three only below the Toyota Camry (388,618), Toyota Corolla (378,210), and Honda Civic (366,927), based on two thousand sixteen sales.
Now, if you consider that a ample fresh contender like the Model three will pull sales away from the Camry, Corolla, and Civic, the Model three would possibly rise to #Trio, #Two, or even #1. (Note that this is just in regards to passenger cars — not pickup trucks or SUVs.)
If you project 350,000 sales a year and the same US passenger car total as in 2016, that would give the Model three a whopping 5% of US passenger car sales — or, put another way, one out of every twenty fresh car sales.
Dan’s comment was that projected Model three production numbers would equal over 3% of fresh auto sales in the US. If you’re nosey, to get down to 3% of US passenger car sales, you have to project that Model three US sales would be 200,000 sales, or one out of every thirty three fresh car sales. That would still put the Model three at #Ten on the top-selling cars list.
This is all pretty striking. Is the US top ten list where the car is headed? Is it headed for #1?
Surely, this is such a polarizing topic that I’m sure I will have people responding “Hear! Hear!” while others criticize me as a starry-eyed, Kool-Aid drinking Tesla fanatic. So be it. But this possibility is deep throating my mind. Even after being at the very first Model three unveiling and covering this company and market for several years, this possibility is sucking my mind.
Back when the Model three was just an idea, it was something we hoped for but worried would never arrive. It arrived on March 31, 2016. When it was unveiled, there was still the concern that Tesla couldn’t get it to production. Production is underway. Even with production now rolling (through hell), there is the concern by some that mass production will be tighter than anticipated (others are drooling at this possibility and shorting TSLA as far as possible).
If production does get to the level Elon says it will, in one year, we may be much more gravely considering whether the Model three could substitute the Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla, or Toyota Camry for the bronze, silver, or gold medal in US passenger car sales.